Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.033407 0.038051 0.043133 0.049112 0.055960 0.063564 0.072658
2025-01-26 0.026783 0.033242 0.040961 0.050889 0.063348 0.078510 0.098423
2025-02-02 0.023312 0.030654 0.039968 0.052692 0.069692 0.091720 0.122589
2025-02-09 0.020874 0.028773 0.039293 0.054396 0.075644 0.104650 0.147552
2025-02-16 0.018363 0.026349 0.037435 0.054044 0.078471 0.113349 0.167412
2025-02-23 0.016553 0.024620 0.036240 0.054328 0.082016 0.123189 0.189781
2025-03-02 0.014801 0.022735 0.034553 0.053594 0.083816 0.130447 0.208845
2025-03-09 0.013761 0.021786 0.034120 0.054651 0.088370 0.142248 0.236230
2025-03-16 0.012514 0.020366 0.032787 0.054087 0.090187 0.149759 0.257269
2025-03-23 0.011895 0.019884 0.032876 0.055811 0.095891 0.164142 0.291491
2025-03-30 0.010694 0.018309 0.031006 0.054013 0.095344 0.167753 0.307004
2025-04-06 0.009827 0.017217 0.029839 0.053291 0.096562 0.174484 0.328802
2025-04-13 0.008819 0.015802 0.028012 0.051267 0.095312 0.176806 0.342938
2025-04-20 0.008510 0.015613 0.028341 0.053219 0.101657 0.193878 0.387726
2025-04-27 0.008216 0.015416 0.028628 0.055102 0.108036 0.211633 0.435945
2025-05-04 0.007929 0.015204 0.028860 0.056888 0.114386 0.229958 0.487499
2025-05-11 0.007403 0.014482 0.028049 0.056518 0.116324 0.239541 0.521545
2025-05-18 0.007002 0.013968 0.027594 0.056817 0.119655 0.252314 0.564044
2025-05-25 0.006522 0.013251 0.026671 0.056048 0.120626 0.260140 0.596288
2025-06-01 0.006273 0.012985 0.026637 0.057155 0.125771 0.277552 0.652773
2025-06-08 0.005880 0.012384 0.025857 0.056564 0.127069 0.286499 0.690198
2025-06-15 0.005733 0.012295 0.026149 0.058370 0.133994 0.308984 0.763387
2025-06-22 0.005282 0.011506 0.024863 0.056486 0.132139 0.310757 0.784918